by Darlington Okoka
Education

Discrepancies in Generation Capacity and National Grid Collapses as Reflected on the NERC Quarterly Report of Quarter 1 2022

The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) which is the watchdog and regulator within the electricity sector on Tuesday the 10th of January, 2023 released the quarter 1 (Q1) of 2022 industry report which highlighted the industry’s operational and commercial performance as well as other issues relating to metering, consumer complaints and resolution. It should be noted that although the report was posted on the 5th January, 2022 to the official website of NERC but it was made known to the public via their verified twitter handle on the 10th of January 2023 which is like a nine months period from quarter 1 of 2022.

The report was quite extensive as it was able to give well detailed information as regards the total operation of all sectors within the electricity network.

The area of concerns basically on this article are the details given on the available generation capacity within Q1 of 2022 and the number of national grid collapses experienced within the time covered. From the NERC report, it was stated that in Q1 of 2022, only two national grid collapses were experienced but this is not entirely correct. On March 14th and 15th, we experienced total collapses of the national grid which is correctly reflected in the report but it will be recalled that we also experienced partial collapse of the national grid on the 17th and 18th of January, 2022 which was not captured in this report but was widely reported by the Cable News, BBC Pidgin and many other Nigerian Journals. Hence, the total collapses of the national grid experienced in Q1 of 2022 is four (4) as against two (2) being reported by NERC’s Quarter 1 (Q1) 2022 report.  

As regards the reported available generation capacity, NERC Q1 2022 report stated that the average available generation capacity in the quarter being covered was 4712.34MW. This is also not entirely correct as we have been following up on the daily update of the national grid generation even though it was not consistent but we had 64.5% data for January 2022, 50% for February 2022 and 45.2% for March 2022 which is for the quarter under review. We could not get 100% consistent data because they were not posted and I had personally tweeted to NERC and TCN to avail the public this data either on their website or their twitter handle which is very effective to enable us get first hand data so as to be able to advise industry players accordingly with adequate and accurate information.

From table 1, 2 and 3 below, it shows that the average available generation capacity for quarter 1 of 2022 is 3347.16MW as against the NERC reported 4712.34MW.

In conclusion, I wish to appreciate NERC for making the report available to the public online. However, I appeal that as an industry authority, all official reports should be properly scrutinized to ensure that accurate information is being given to the public especially for those of us who depend on such reports for analysis and future energy forecast. Also, it does not sound efficient presenting a quarter 1 (Q1) 2022 report in quarter 1 2023 which is approximately nine (9) months afterwards, any remediable action in the report must have been overtaken by events which might be quite catastrophic. Finally, it will be appreciated if NERC or TCN can on a daily basis post the official National Generation Capacity to the public domain and the percentage of this allocation that is being allotted to each of the eleven discos.

Table 1: National Generation for January, 2022

S/N DATE MW GENERATED
1 Jan. 3 3736.38
2 Jan. 4 3748.86
3 Jan. 5 3647.10
4 Jan. 6 3585.66
5 Jan. 7 3585.66
6 Jan. 10 3536.70
7 Jan. 11 3635.58
8 Jan. 12 3664.38
9 Jan. 13 3621.18
10 Jan. 14 3566.46
11 Jan. 18 3531.90
12 Jan. 19 3531.90
13 Jan. 21 3285.17
14 Jan. 24 2943.41

Total National Generation for January 2022 using the 45.2% data gotten above is = 49620.34MW

Average National Generation for January 2022 = 49620.34/14 = 3544.31MW

Table 2: National Generation for February, 2022

S/N DATE MW GENERATED
1 Feb. 2 3878.11
2 Feb. 3 3244.85
3 Feb. 7 3691.26
4 Feb. 8 3662.46
5 Feb. 9 3590.46
6 Feb. 10 3497.34
7 Feb.11 3342.77
8 Feb.15 3156.53
9 Feb. 18 3168.05
10 Feb. 19 3214.13
11 Feb. 20 3586.62
12 Feb. 21 3841.02
13 Feb. 23 3514.62
14 Feb. 28 3577.28

Total National Generation for February 2022 using the 50% data gotten above is = 48965.50MW

Average National Generation for February 2022 = 48965.50/14 = 3497.54MW

Table 3: National Generation for March, 2022

S/N DATE MW GENERATED
1 Mar. 1 3527.10
2 Mar. 2 3503.01
3 Mar. 4 3289.01
4 Mar. 5 3623.10
5 Mar. 6 3210.29
6 Mar. 7 3253.49
7 Mar. 8 3323.57
8 Mar. 9 3246.77
9 Mar. 10 3270.77
10 Mar. 11 3150.77
11 Mar. 13 2773.49
12 Mar. 14 2773.49
13 Mar. 15 2221.01
14 Mar. 17 1945.01
15 Mar. 18 2329.01
16 Mar. 19 2617.01
17 Mar. 20 2958.77
18 Mar. 21 3145.01
19 Mar. 22 2808.00
20 Mar. 25 3024.01

Total National Generation for March 2022 using the 64.5% data gotten above is = 59992.69MW

Average National Generation for March 2022 = 59992.69/20 = 2999.64MW

Therefore, Average National Generation for Q1 2022 = (3544.31 + 3497.54 + 2999.64)/3 = 3347.16MW

Thank you.

Darlington Okoka
Power/Energy Consultant
Twitter: @darlookoka
Whatsapp: https://wa.link/v7smuj
Phone: +2348039233787